It’s finally here. The road leading through months of campaigning, awards ceremonies, luncheons, interviews, and photo ops finally ends with the 95th Academy Awards this Sunday at the Dolby Theater.
There’s an eclectic mix of Best Picture nominees striving for the top prize as cinephiles discuss the merits of winning the category against what makes the Best Picture winner. Is someone who has been in the industry for decades more deserving because of their body of work? Can a low-budget, family-affirming, multi-dimensional picture win the race? Will a streaming service finally take the top prize?
This year, there have been surprisingly affecting and emotional action films like Top Gun: Maverick and the stellar visual extravaganza of James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of the Water. We’ve experienced searing character and class studies with Triangle of Sadness and Tar and sensational biopics with Elvis and The Fabelmans (loosely). Friendships have soured in the Banshees of Inisherin, and novels are adapted with Women Talking and All Quiet on the Western Front. This year is as much of a mixture of tones, genre, and talent both in front and behind the camera as there ever has been. Although there are some glaring omissions to the Best Picture list, and conversations around campaigning strategies and financial competencies are over-due and necessary.
But at its core, the awards season is a celebration of craft. Whether it’s the costume designs in Wakanda Forever, the acutely observed sounds of fighter jets in Top Gun: Maverick, or the sensitively designed prosthetics in The Whale, our transportation through multi-universes is grounded by the craft of technical and creative achievements. After all, what would Jenny the Donkey’s performance in Banshees of Inisherin be without an animal wrangler?
The final stage of Oscar voting is the preferential ballot whereby voters rank their favorites from 1 as the most preferred winner to 10 as the least. I’ve accumulated both my best guesses and possible upsets in my final ballot for the year for each of the 23 categories:
Best Picture
Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Possible Alternative: Tar
There is no denying the power of Everything Everywhere All at Once, all but sweeping acting categories and the technical awards this season. It’s the most relatable story for anyone who has ever tried to make more with less. Sure, it has a stellar Michelle Yeoh fronting the cast and a transformative Jamie Lee Curtis spitting out insults. Still, the film has transposed the directors of a farting corpse into deserving, humble winners of this category. Daniel Kwan’s speech at the Indie Spirit Awards about creating independent films in a sea of studio selections brings sincerity to the award. Every film student, aspirational director, auditioning actor, and anyone working toward making a name for themselves would be proud to see Daniel Scheinert, Daniel Kwan, and all their creative collaborators see Everything Everywhere All at Once win.
Fun fact: I loved Tar the first time I saw it in theaters and even more on a second viewing. The film takes a different, more comedic tone knowing who Tar is and what happens to this Maestro — a worthy alternate winner.
Best Director
Winner: Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan
Possible Alternative: Steven Spielberg
At a recent awards ceremony, I overheard a journalist discussing how Steven Spielberg wants to win Best Director over any other category. Is there truth to this? Possibly. Does it matter? Not really – just that I want that for him too. His film dives into the drive of filmmaking and the heartbreak that runs alongside it. However, The Daniel’s film is such a remarkable technical achievement too. Its brilliant editing seamlessly interweaves multi-verses against a beautiful story connecting a mother and her daughter. It’s a balancing act that should secure The Daniels with the award. But the power of Spielberg may prevail with Oscar voters.
Best Actress
Winner: Cate Blanchett
Possible Alternative: Michelle Yeoh
Look, hear me out. Both actresses are phenomenal. Yeoh could make history by winning this award. Blanchett has won this category previously for Blue Jasmine (and a supporting Oscar for The Aviator). Honestly, this category could go either way, and both would be deserving. Blanchett has the advantage for me because of the consistent barrage of Lydia Tar references that have spawned from her performance. Blanchett’s portrayal of an esteemed conductor’s downfall sent audiences into a frenzy trying to uncover where the real Lydia Tar is now. Either way, no one will be upset if either actress takes the prize.
Best Actor
Winner: Paul Mescal
Possible Alternative: Brendan Fraser
I’m not even apologizing for this one. Though Austin Butler gives a fine, energetic performance in Elvis, it’s become monotonous seeing performances win awards for portraying musicians. Rami Malek did it. Taron Egerton did it. Jamie Foxx did it. Marion Cotillard and Renee Zellweger, to name a few. Is a performance more worthy and distinguishable when you have a real-life counterpart to compare it to? Paul Mescal’s performance in the gorgeously melancholy Aftersun is both ominously vacant and intimately adoring. I felt his shame for not singing karaoke with his daughter and was absolutely devastated by the film’s end. Brendon Fraser may still take the award, but I’m leaning toward Mescal for the upset.
Best Supporting Actress
Winner: Angela Bassett
Possible Alternative: Kerry Condon
We all wanted one thing from Bassett, and if you’ve seen Wakanda Forever, you know the scene I’m referencing. The scene highlighted years of watching Angela Bassett doing the thing. Of all the nominees in this category, Bassett’s presence in Wakanda Forever is precisely what a supporting nominee needs to do. Their presence is more conservative than a leading cast member, but the impression they leave extends beyond the closing credits. Bassett did just that in a Marvel film and so much more.
Best Supporting Actor
Winner: Ke Huy Quan
Possible Alternative: Judd Hirsch
Ke Huy Quan has the comeback story of a lifetime. His performance ranges from emotional carriage to high-octane fight sequences. He has swept the awards season and will surely not lose at the Academy Awards. Judd Hirsch, however, has that performance in the Fabelman’s that becomes a turning point for our main little Spielberg/Sammy Fabelman. Hirsch infuses his monologue with passion, ethos, and years of experience worth sharing with his great-nephew. I was stunned on first viewing and remained eagerly impressed, but this is Quan’s to lose.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Winner: Sarah Polley
Possible Alternative: Rian Johnson
Wouldn’t that be a fun upset if Rian Johnson won? The continued power of Netflix is its potential to be the talk of social media. Glass Onion had a potent theatrical release that saw a rigorous campaign for a longer theatrical window. Still, Netflix waited for the holiday period to release the film when everyone could sit around and enjoy it together. In fact, my partner’s father watched it three times (twice unsuccessful after falling asleep on the couch). But Polley’s Women Talking is an enigmatic film centered around a conversation between a collection of women deciding their future. Polley infuses the screenplay with fleeting moments outside the barn as the women’s decision looms near, giving audiences respite from the barn’s interior and the challenging opinions of each family’s decision. The women are represented clearly and potently as they reason with their beliefs and need for safety from the community’s men.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Winner: Martin McDonough
Possible Alternative: Todd Field
McDonough perfectly places Farrell and Gleeson against each other, with Farrell’s pining for friendship disintegrating into madness and revenge. Ten points are taken off for killing a Donkey in the screenplay, and another four for the fingers, but Mcdonough, an Academy favorite nominee but never winner outside of the short film category, could win one of the toughest categories of the evening. But, of course, any of these writers could win this category, and it would be an understandable choice.
The rest of the bunch:
Best Documentary Film
Winner: Fire of Love
Possible Alternative: All That Breathes
Best Animated Film
Winner: Marcel the Shell with Shoes on
Possible Alternative: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
I still have not fully recovered from watching Marcel — a stunning achievement in emotion and animation.
Best International Feature
Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Possible Alternative: Close
Best Film Editing
Winner: Top Gun: Maverick
Possible Alternative: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Cinematography
Winner: Tar
Possible Alternative: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Costume Design
Winner: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Possible Alternative: Elvis
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Winner: Elvis
Possible Alternative: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Sound
Winner: Top Gun Maverick
Possible Alternative: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Visual Effects
Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
Possible Alternative: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Music (Original Score)
Winner: Babylon
Possible Alternative: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Original Song
Winner: Naatu Naatu (RRR)
Possible Alternative: This is a Life (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Best Production Design
Winner: Elvis
Possible Alternative: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Documentary Short
Winner: The Elephant Whispers
Possible Alternative: How do You Measure a Year?
Best Short Film (Animated)
Winner: The Flying Sailor
Possible Alternative: My Year of Dicks
Best Short Film (Live Action)
Winner: Le Pupille
Possible Alternative: The Red Suitcase
